February, 1999

Food industry trends -- winners and losers

By Thomas Murphy
Penn State University

Of course you want to be on the winning edge of the food marketing equation, but how do you know which way to go? John Lord from the Food Marketing Dept. at St. Joseph’s University had some intriguing insights at a related conference this past year. Based on researching restaurants, supermarkets, food processors and other industry sources, he offered a number of trends in the industry that could have a profound effect on your business if you plan to thrive in the future. And although every area of the state and nation has its differences in customer preferences and acceptance of trends, they still will have a measurable impact that you could profit from either now or in the very near future. So how about a few of his facts.
Approximately 60% of women in the U.S. are employed outside the home and 60% of kids under age 12 have mothers who work. No big surprise here. And although the fact seems very straightforward, its implications are sometimes hidden. What’s obvious is there is less time at home for meal preparation (and clean-up) and more time spent doing other things. Household tasks of all types are thought of as something to get through quickly so important goals of kids’ homework, soccer games and dad’s night classes can be accomplished. Speed in meal preparation is a key. Currently, the average time spent preparing meals is 30 minutes and is projected to fall below 15 minutes in the near future. Convenience is a sales opportunity and it is now a bigger part of our culture then ever. It’s important because it saves time and time is becoming a commodity that a substantial portion of the consuming public is willing to pay for.
Another glimpse at our lifestyles shows additional points worth considering:
• 30% of households have both parents working;
• 30% of households have a single parent;
• 2.5 people is now the average size of a household;
• 25% of the population lives alone;
• 8% of homes with kids have mom at home and dad at work.
Analyzing the data backs up earlier points and illustrates some others. More working couples create more additional income which could have pricing opportunities in your area. Large numbers of single mothers could adversely affect your pricing intentions. Do you ever analyze the family structure, ethnicity, or income levels of your customer base or the community around you? Often this information is available free from state agencies if you ask. Smaller families, tired parent(s), more people alone - all the numbers above, except the last, point to the idea that on the average little time is or will be spent in the kitchen. There are fewer “all family” meals and fewer eaten at home - now only 21% are prepared and eaten there.
So where are we likely to be getting our meals in the near future? Out and from a variety of venues. Seventy percent of consumers don’t decide what to have for dinner until that day and 42% decide within four hours of the meal, with a similar number making the decision while shopping. Savvy marketers will use these facts to determine their offerings as do most successful supermarkets and restaurant chains.
In 1996, Lord points out that 51% carried out more meals from restaurants than ate there, which makes restaurants a “prepared foods supermarket” with most consumers going home to consume the items. (Interestingly, 71% said they would like to eat more of their meals at home.) Microwave use is up, stove use is down (69% in 1985 to 57% in 1997). And this is not lost on supermarket managers. Pre-cooked meals including Thanksgiving and Christmas dinners (is nothing sacred) are offered by many leading chains. Perkins offers “homemade” pies to go (I never saw one that looked that fancy at home though), and the delivery service will bring it all to your doorstep for a small fee. Much of their advertising is now devoted to this area of marketing, especially radio spots reaching commuters in the morning and afternoon. More items are being offered and purchased as frozen entrees with fewer homemade dishes served. Fewer side dishes are being eaten including vegetables (fewer dishes to wash).
More food manufacturers are offering dishes that come in a box or can, look homemade, take 10 minutes to prepare, and just use a few simple additional ingredients you would normally have in the pantry. Meat departments offer uncooked meats with stuffing - prepackaged two to an aluminum cooking container. The cooking temperature and time are clearly marked on the label. Place in the oven and set the timer, put on the minute rice, open the precut salad greens, and find Suzy to help her with those math problems. About the time the mental light comes on for Suzy, dinner is ready.
Although other facts from the survey suggest we would like meal scenarios similar to our past, the facts show trends where convenience is king and time savings are the norm. Any grower/marketer will tell you PYO is declining, container sizes of items purchased are getting smaller and people more commonly ask how to prepare something they are look at. Although the trends may be disturbing in many respects, they are fact. Marketing opportunities abound for those willing to sort through them to see where they can make changes and reap rewards. Those who only look at change as something to avoid will lose market share and customers. The farm market down the road probably isn’t your biggest competitor - the restaurant next door probably is.


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